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Abstract
In this research work, an up-to-date optimization-simulation process for delineation of the cropping pattern in Egypt as per altered operation rules for HAD during the filling period of the proposed Ethiopian dams on the Blue Nile is developed using GAMS (General Algebraic modelling system) connected to Excel via Visual Basic. Five different scenarios of inflows at Aswan corresponding to different combinations of proposed Ethiopian dams are determined from Eastern Nile RiverWare planning model by Wheeler and Setzer (2012). On the other hand seven annual water release scenarios from HAD are assumed from 40 BCM to the current 55.5 BCM. The effects of each of the seven annual water release scenarios on the optimum cropping pattern in Egypt are investigated by a Nonlinear GAMS cropping pattern optimization model. The main objective of the optimization model is to maximize the net profit from the agriculture sector of Egypt considering two cases of domestic demand; a) the 2012 constant domestic demand, and b) increasing domestic demand by 1.65%. The proposed maximum net profit algorithm is tested for two strategies; i) free cropping pattern restricted by a maximum variation of ±25% from base line condition (2012), and ii) cropping pattern restricted by maintaining a fixed value for wheat (strategic crop). Cropping under water deficiency (Stress) is tested within the algorithm. The effects of each release and inflow scenarios on storage, water level in Lake Nasser and energy generated from HAD are also investigated