الفهرس 
Literature ReviewOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
The imbalance between the high water demand and the limited water supplies in Egypt makes water resources management a big challenge. The Mediterranean Sea water intrusion is predicted to increase, causing high water salinity at the Nile delta. A future reduction in the Nile’s water supply is also expected to occur leading to further water stress. Such water shortage will increase the re-use of drainage water which leads to further increase in the water’s salinity. This study aims at proposing adaptation measures to overcome the foreseen scarcity in agricultural water demands in the Nile Delta. The first strategy is adding a salt-tolerant crop to the traditional Egyptian crop pattern as an adaptation measure to the water shortage and salinity conditions. Using quinoa is suggested as an alternative for wheat crop in areas with high water salinity, where the wheat’s productivity is negatively affected. The effectiveness of the proposed crop is evaluated by using the agriculture sector model for Egypt (ASME) which estimates the water demand and the agricultural productivity for different cropping patterns.
The results show that quinoa is a good substitution that produces a reliable yield in the case of Nile flow reduction. A base case considering the current water supply conditions is first studied. Then, a 10% reduction in the Nile water supply and the population projection in the year 2030 are presented in two scenarios, one of which considers financial incentives for supporting quinoa. The results show that the Nile flow reduction adversely affects most of crops’ yields, and accordingly, decreases the total crops’ water productivity, but quinoa is found to have a potential high yield in case of water shortage. The total yield of both quinoa and wheat together decrease from 8,643 million tons to 8.223 million tons for the scenario of 10% Nile water reduction without economic incentives, while it jumps to 11.474 million tons under the same conditions but with incentives that encourage the farmers to cultivate quinoa. Then the same work was repeated for a 15% reduction in the Nile flow and then a 20% reduction in the Nile flow to compare if they have similar trends. The results were exactly the same with a slight difference in numbers.
After that, the study presented a second adaptation measure, which introduced a new concept for water security, the Irrigation Water Security Quality-based Index. Through this concept, the irrigation water security is presented based on quantity and quality. The effect of water quality parameters on agriculture productivity, soil deterioration, and public health was evaluated. The probability of harm was used in the risk analysis and assessment. The developed index was applied to evaluate the Egyptian irrigation system, 10% reduction in the Nile’s supply, and four adaptation scenarios as an illustrative example. Drainage water reuse is adopted in Egypt to provide a sufficient supply and improve the water security. However, this improved water security doesn’t consider the water’s quality. The current Egyptian condition and 10% Nile reduction showed water insecurity when the water quality was considered using the newly developed index. Expanding drainage and sewage water treatment improved the developed index to high security levels. This highlights the importance of drainage water treatment in attaining a sustainable high water security level.
Keywords: Adaptation ; Crop pattern; Agriculture Sector Model for Egypt (ASME); Nile Delta; Quinoa; Water productivity; Water salinity; Agricultural drainage water reuse; Irrigation water security; Water scarcity; Water quality.