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العنوان
نظرية المباريات وسد النهضة الإثيوبي /
المؤلف
عودة، جهاد محمد أحمد.
هيئة الاعداد
باحث / جهاد محمد أحمد عودة
مشرف / مـحـمـد بدير العراقي
مشرف / عاطف عبد العظيم جودة
مناقش / خالد أحمد عبده حسنين
تاريخ النشر
2021.
عدد الصفحات
143ص. :
اللغة
العربية
الدرجة
ماجستير
التخصص
الاقتصاد والاقتصاد القياسي
تاريخ الإجازة
1/1/2000
مكان الإجازة
جامعة عين شمس - كلية الزراعة - اقتصاد زراعي
الفهرس
يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام

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المستخلص

ABSTRACT
Jehad Mohammad Ahmad Awdah: Game Theory and Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. M.Sc. Thesis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, 2021.
The Nile River provides Egypt with about 72.62% of all of its water resources. The agricultural sector consumes about 81.45% of the total water resources available to Egypt. Egypt annual quota of the Nile water is fixed at 55.5 billion cubic meters. Therefore per capita share of water resources is dwindling over the years. from 1947 to 1960 there was a relative abundance of water, where per capita annual water share ranged between 2604-1893 cubic meters. Then Egypt reached water sufficiency during the period 1970 – 1986 where per capita share ranged from 1672 to 1138 cubic meters. Starting from 1996, per capita water share fell below the annual water poverty line of 1000 cubic meters. It is expected that the per capita share will reach 582 m3 in year 2025. It is also expected that the water crisis in Egypt will worsen in year 2050, when the per capita share of water reaches 294 m3.
This research attempts to study the interrelated relationships between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia within the framework of game theory, where simple models are used to analyze the ongoing conflict and concerns about the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The analysis indicates that direct clashes between the Nile basin countries could erupt if conditions of drought and water stress prevail. The study however shows that a peaceful resolution to the problem can lead to mutual benefits for the three countries.
By studying the different scenarios for filling the Renaissance Dam reservoir, it was found that Egypt could lose about 28.6% of its cultivated lands if the reservoir is filled in 3 years and about 13.2% if the reservoir is filled in 5 years. The study indicates that the strategy of arbitration is the preferred Nash equilibrium. Therefore, the study recommends that the three countries should strive to reach an agreement through arbitration with mediation from international bodies like the World Bank. Egypt and the Sudan should resort to all possible means to reach a binding and enforceable agreement with Ethiopia.
Key words: The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - Game Theory - Nash Equilibrium - Years of Filling.