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العنوان
التغيرات فى أسعار النفط وانعكاساتها على البورصات العالمية بالتطبيق على البورصة المصرية خلال الفترة (1990-2016) /
المؤلف
حجازي، منى أحمد محمد.
هيئة الاعداد
باحث / منى أحمد محمد حجازي
مشرف / أحمد فؤاد مندور
مشرف / عبير فرحات علي
مناقش / أشرف حلمي سلامة
تاريخ النشر
2019.
عدد الصفحات
198 ص. :
اللغة
العربية
الدرجة
ماجستير
التخصص
الإقتصاد ، الإقتصاد والمالية (متفرقات)
تاريخ الإجازة
1/1/2019
مكان الإجازة
جامعة عين شمس - كلية التجارة - الاقتصاد
الفهرس
يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام

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المستخلص

The sharp fluctuations in oil prices have many different effects on many economic variables of both developed and developing countries. This impact depends on price behavior in the oil market as well as on the dependence of the state on oil as a source of financing its economic and social programs. The oil revenues of the countries and then the public revenues. Since the end of 2014, oil prices have witnessed many developments and fluctuations, and due to the importance of the oil sector in the global economy affected both oil and non-oil, such fluctuations.
As a result of the fact that the stock market is one of the largest variables affected by the global economic changes, the instability of oil prices has had a clear effect on the international stock markets either directly or indirectly. Hence, the problem of the study was to review the impact of changes in global oil prices and the global economy assuming that other factors remain intact that have a bearing on the financial market, Therefore, the objective of the study was to study the impact on the American Stock Exchange due to the sudden and sudden shift of the United States from an importing country to an exporting country. This has played a major role in the recent oil crisis industry as well as the Saudi Stock Exchange because it is the most important exporting and exporting countries. Egyptian securities as one of the emerging stock exchanges that are affected by the dependence of international crises.
The study relied on proving or denying the following hypotheses:
1. The sharp changes in international oil prices have had mixed effects on the performance of both the US stock exchange, Saudi Arabia and the Egyptian stock exchange.
2. The emergence of rock oil was a positive reflection on speculations in the oil market and then on the performance rates of both international and Arab stock exchanges.
3. The oil crisis of 2015 had a direct impact on the performance of the Egyptian stock exchange.
To reach this, the study was divided into three chapters:
The first chapter deals with the first part of the study in terms of oil price developments and the impact of changes in these prices on the global economy. The chapter was divided into three sections. The first section presents the stages of development of oil markets up to the emergence of petrodollars. The main crises in oil and in the third topic were presented the challenges facing the oil industry, which vary between the challenges of demand and supply challenges.
In the second chapter, the second part of the study, the securities markets, was explained in a theoretical way in three fields. The first topic dealt with the nature and components of the stock market and the factors influencing the determination of stock prices. The second topic was the explanation of the nature of both the Egyptian and Saudi stock exchanges, In the third section, the general indicators of the international and Arab exchanges were presented as well as the indices for the crude oil market.
The third chapter is the analytical part of the study. The effects of fluctuations in oil prices on the stock markets were presented through three studies. In the first section, the last oil crisis was explained and analyzed in terms of its general features, the reasons that led to it, the current situation of the crisis, The impact of the crisis on both the US and Saudi stock markets was explained indirectly and indirectly on the Egyptian stock exchange. Finally, the third topic presented the various scenarios related to the global oil market until 2030 and how to reduce the effects of these sharp fluctuations in prices Oil.
The study confirmed the validity of the first hypothesis, which states that the sharp changes in international oil prices have had mixed effects on the performance of both the US stock exchange and Saudi Arabia and the Egyptian stock market because of the difference in medical both had a negative impact on the US stock market in the crisis year and then things returned to normal while The impact on the Saudi stock market as a result of Saudi Arabia being one of the most important oil exporters in the world and its dependence mainly on oil in its public revenues, while the impact on the Egyptian stock exchange positive as a result of the low cost of oil imports, although the right part of the negative impact was indirectly due to the intertwining of the global economy.
While the study showed that the second hypothesis that the emergence of rock oil was a positive reflection on speculation in the oil market and then on the performance rates of both the international and Arab stock markets because rock oil at the beginning of the emergence of the latest violent shake in the energy sector globally and therefore was reflected on The oil bourse is negative.
As for the third hypothesis, which states that the oil crisis of 2015 has a direct impact on the performance of the Egyptian stock market through the study was denied the validity of this hypothesis As the Egyptian stock market was affected indirectly because the oil crisis had a direct impact on the oil countries, which depend on the public revenues on oil revenues and then have a direct impact on the stock markets, while for Egypt, the impact was negative and indirect, while the impact on the rest of the economic sectors between The positive impact of the crisis is reflected in the decline in the support of petroleum products in the state budget as a result of the decline in oil prices at a time when the state follows the policy of reducing energy support until its abolition in full in 2019 within the framework of the economic reform program where The value of supporting petroleum products decreased from 126 billion pounds in 2014 to 73 billion pounds in 2015 and 51 billion pounds in 2016, Which contributed to reducing the deficit of the state budget in 2015, where the ratio of the overall deficit of the general budget fell from 12.2% in 2014 to 11.5% in 2015 as a percentage of GDP, in other terms, an increase in the value of remittances of Egyptians working abroad in 2015 Which increased from 184 billion dollars in 2014 to 192 billion dollars in 2015 and then declined in 2016 to 167 billion dollars as a result of the intensification of the crisis.
In conclusion, the study recommended several points, including:
1. The oil countries to diversify their sources of public revenues and the lack of dependence on oil revenues in general to avoid the negative effects resulting from fluctuations in world oil prices, and thus avoid the impact of these fluctuations on the economies of these countries in general and the stock markets and performance rates of public indicators In particular.
2. The oil countries should create a competitive advantage by reducing oil exports in its raw form and developing the oil derivatives industry, which has a better return than the export revenues of crude oil.
3. The direction of the oil states towards renewable energy and exit from the conflict between crude oil and shale oil and give them a larger share of the market with the government’s intentions towards the environment and reduce carbon emissions by reducing consumption of rock fuel.
4. Look for alternative opportunities between different markets in both oil exporting and importing countries, and look for better returns between stock markets according to oil prices. And investors are reporting economic news to a broader tone.
5. Developing the organizational and legislative structure of the Arab stock exchanges. And the listing of shares of oil companies in local stocks rather than on the global stock exchanges such as Aramco Saudi Arabia, which seeks within the Kingdom 2030 program to put 5% of these shares for public subscription on the London Stock Exchange or the New York Stock Exchange, and this helps attract global liquidity.
6. Utilize the relationship between oil markets and stock markets to suit the economic and political conditions of the current stage. Term plans between the Gulfs markets to support their markets and focus on the principle of efficiency and provide the necessary data and information to help dealers in these markets.