العنوان Suggested Statistical Model for Evaluating Performance to Maximize the Benefits from the Egyptian Aviation Sector: المؤلف Ali, Gamal El-din Ahdy Tolba. هيئة الاعداد باحث / Gamal El-din Ahdy Tolba Ali مشرف / Medhat Mohamed Ahmed Abd El-Aal مشرف / Tarek Ali Hassan مناقش / Tarek Ali Hassan تاريخ النشر 2018. عدد الصفحات 152 P. : اللغة الإنجليزية الدرجة ماجستير التخصص الأعمال والإدارة والمحاسبة (المتنوعة) تاريخ الإجازة 1/1/2018 مكان الإجازة جامعة عين شمس - كلية التجارة - قسم الاحصاء والرياضة والتامين الفهرس | Only 14 pages are availabe for public view |

Abstract“Suggested Statistical Model for Evaluating Performance and Designing a Strategic Plan to Maximize the Benefits of Egypt from the Egyptian Aviation Sector” (Case Study: Egyptair Airlines) Introduction: The story of the Aviation industry starts from more than two thousand years ago, thus the first artificial flying objects was kites and gliders that after continues working and development, it achieved its current shape in the now days from supersonic and hypersonic Aircrafts. Target of Research: This research in general is aiming to use the Statistical methods, science and techniques in designing a Statistical Model that’s (1)Organizing large data base of aviation sector ,(2) Analyzing the data base, (3)Estimates the Sales volume and,(4)Display the weight of each variable in deferent markets. Research plan: In order to assess the performance in the aviation sector specially the national airline Egyptair we should overcome some obstacles which are, (a) huge data size, (b) variation in the market characteristics, (c) the variation in distance (or flight time), thus we could classify Egyptair routes in two major categories that share the same benchmark which are (1) Distance of the route (Flying hours), and (2) the market geographic location. Each of the two main categories has its internal classification as well, thus the distance category is classified in three sub groups which are long haul routes, Medium haul routes, Short haul routes. Also the area category is consists of three sub groups; Africa, Europe and Middle East. One destination will be selected that well be samples for the entire 63 destination (population), and among the 63, moreover it will be taken in account that the routes will be selected upon the availability of some basic characteristics Variables of the Research The data required in the research is mostly numerical (Quantitative) data, the following table will show the variables that research will consider in evaluating the degree and the relation between the explanatory and response variables, The Explanatory variable: The dependent variable studied in the research is the sales volume which describes the number of air tickets sold on Egyptair routes and it consider the factor that has a powerful impact on revenue that Egyptair can achieve. The research attempts to study the sales volume for the three routes which represents the sample of Egyptair’s network. The 3 dependent variables studied in the research are as follows; Y1 -- sales volume on Egyptair route connecting Cairo (CAI) and London (LHR) Y2 -- sales volume on Egyptair route connecting Cairo (CAI) and Beirut (BEY) Y3 -- sales volume on Egyptair route connecting Cairo (CAI) and Addis Ababa (ADD) The Response variables: The research consider five different independent variables that assumed to have powerful effect on the sales volume, in another words the research will measure the relation between the demand, supply, price , market share and Egyptair’s offered in comparison with the sales volume. Because of the research is studying a sample size of 3 routes from different geographic areas and with different distance (flight hours), thus the research will study 15 independent variables which are as follows: X1 – The number of passengers traveled between Cairo (CAI) and London (LHR). X2 – The average price in EGP for tickets between Cairo (CAI) and London (LHR). X3 – the percentage of the passengers traveled between Cairo (CAI) and London (LHR) on Egyptair routes. X4 – The number of seats offered for sale by all airlines on the route between Cairo (CAI) and London (LHR). X5 – The number of seats offered for sale by Egyptair on the route between Cairo (CAI) and London (LHR). X6 – The number of passengers traveled between Cairo (CAI) and Beirut (BEY). X7 – The average price in EGP for tickets between Cairo (CAI) and Beirut (BEY). X8 – The percentage of the passengers traveled between Cairo (CAI) and Beirut (BEY) on Egyptair routes. X9 – The number of seats offered for sale by all airlines on the route between Cairo (CAI) and Beirut (BEY). X10 – The number of seats offered for sale by Egyptair on the route between Cairo (CAI) and Beirut (BEY). X11 – The number of passengers traveled between Cairo (CAI) and Addis Ababa (ADD). X12 – The average price in EGP for tickets between Cairo (CAI) and Addis Ababa (ADD). X13 – The percentage of the passengers traveled between Cairo (CAI) and Addis Ababa (ADD) on Egyptair routes. X14 – The number of seats offered for sale by all airlines on the route between Cairo (CAI) and Addis Ababa (ADD). X15 – The number of seats offered for sale by Egyptair on the route between Cairo (CAI) and Addis Ababa (ADD). Hypothesis that will be tested to analysis the variables: 1) There is no relationship between geographic area and sales volume. 2) There is no relationship between route distance and sales volume. Data collection: The data will be collected in cross functional method on monthly basis for the last 6 calendar years (January- December) which will give us 72 observations that covers the period of 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. The Outline of the Thesis: Chapter one: Explains the General Framework of the Research and in terms of the objectives of the research and its variables, data and sources of data. Chapter Two: focuses on the General features of the international Aviation sector as well as the Egyptian aviation sector and its importance and contributions in the Egyptian economy. Chapter Three: Explains the Theoretical Framework of Statistical Model suggested to deal with the time series data gathered for the routes under study and the characteristics of vector autoregressive model (VAR) and how it will help in this research. Chapter Four: Presents The Practical Application of the Statistical Model on the data collected for London, Beirut and Addis Ababa sales volume during 2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015, and test the relationship of the demand, Price, Market share, Supply, Egyptair Supplied seats on the sales volume. Chapter Five: Displays the Results, Conclusion and Recommendations of the research that suggested to help Egyptair in evaluating its routes performance and in designing the strategic goals and objectives in terms of pricing, flight scheduling, sales target setting. |