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Abstract
Population growth is a major concern of the Egyptian government. Countries characterized by an increasing population growth rates needs much more spending on health, education, and other social services which might have a negative impact on government deficit and other macro-economic variable with limited economic growth prospect. Even with higher growth rate the per capita GDP (gross Domestic Product) becomes smaller which affects the welfare measures of citizens. To sum-up, with higher population growth rates, the cost of economic development becomes much higher. On the other hand, higher fertility rate reduces their work opportunities of women and affect negatively their health.
The National Population Council set national targets to achieve a national target for the total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 Child per Woman by year 2017. To achieve this target there is a need to maintain a sustainable successful family planning program. Contraceptive security is a main component to continue family planning program success. To improve decision making on determining quantities of each method for regions and governorates to ensure achieving targets there is a need to determine the targets at these levels (i.e. regional and governorate). As well as optimizing the effectiveness of method mix to control fertility taking into consideration the limited available budget.
Because fertility is a complex adaptive phenomenon that results from the interplay of various social, psychological and cultural patterns related to employment, child mortality, contraceptive use, level of education and socio-economic development.
This dissertation proposes a decision support model to determine the contribution of each region and governorate in the National Target Total Fertility Rate using Analytical Hierarchical process and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process .The proposed model is considers a number of socio-economic context including women education level, percent of young women, infant mortality, age at first marriage, women working status, spouse level of education, family income, and place of residence. The AHP and FAHP are employed to determine the contribution of each governorate in its region to the required reduction of regional TFR targets. All assessments of selected criteria are assessed and because of
uncertainty we are using fuzzy AHP by five experts’ opinions in the domain of family planning to reflect its impact and contributions into governorate TFR. The proposed model is implemented to disaggregate the national TFR into regional TFR and governorate to achieve its required reduction level. The obtained results showed that the proposed model performed well in introducing a set of governorates targets that achieves the regional goal and is consistent with the characteristics of each governorate the most important socio-economic variables were selected and rated by experts to identify most important variables in achieving target fertility at regional and governorate level. In addition, to ensure achieving the most effective method mix, a model for supply chain management was developed to determine required commodities from each type of contraceptive to achieve the most effective method mix at the national level taking into consideration the limited available budget for commodities allocated from Ministry of Health and Population as constraint in the linear programming.
The proposed models improved decision making process with respect to determining commodities taking into consideration that supports in identifying the suitable policies for regional sustainability developing regarding family planning programs. Determination, and reduction of the contribution of each region and governorate inside this region to achieve the national target TFR is taking into consideration its socio-economic context including women education level, women employment status, infant mortality, Place of residence, poverty & GDP and male education level, family income.
Furthermore, a model for supply chain management to determine required contraceptive commodities at regional level to respond to demand and achieving target total fertility rate as well as optimize the effectiveness of the method mix considering limited available budget to buy required commodities. The obtained results showed that the proposed approaches performed well in achieving the reduced regional target level of TFR and manage supply chain to ensure avoiding out of stock status.