الفهرس 
الوضع الحالى والتطور المستقبلى للمياه كمحدد للأزمة المائية فى مصر.
الوضع الانمائى فى دول حوض النيليوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
 |  | from | 247 |  |  |
| | | from | 247 | | |
المستخلص
Abstract
Given to the importance of the Great role of water as a vital resource and a major in the various developmental activities, and because of the non-balanced water situation in Egypt which is expected to be transformed in the near future to a problem, and in the far future to a crisis, this study is to identify the nature of the current situation of water in Egypt and the attempt to anticipate what might happen in the future as a basis for thinking in developing some of the solutions to avoid these problems and crises or mitigate the negative effects.
The gap behind the water deficit in Egypt seems to be increased over time not only for the highly expected demand on water, but also for the influence of other factors that may affect the quantities available from the Nile, such as the unexpected or unfavorable climatic changes and its impact on the level of the Nile water in addition to the proposed projects in some countries of Ethiopian and Tropical plateau. These combined factors to the emergence of the concept of water security which represents a concept with economic, political and military dimensions, in this field, the water is the focus of the strategic conflicts whose challenges need to be encountered through investing all human, financial and natural capabilities.
A lot of scenarios to solve the crisis of water to maintain the water security of Egypt as one of the dimensions of the Egyptian national security which entirely involves absolute concept that is based on a fundamental basis representing in the efficiency and security of water resources in the future and in the light of the current challenges which hinder the achievement of the development goals, so there is no way to consider the concept of relative water security that is compatible with the traditional possibilities of water and non-traditional capabilities to meet the basic needs and seek, by all means, to search for new water sources, developing them, raise its investment capabilities, the good management of it and giving priority to considerations of cooperation on the challenges of conflict between the Nile Basin countries in order to maximize the co-benefits for these countries.
Summary
Egypt’s needs of waters is increasing along time for the continuous increase of the over population and improvement of living level, in addition to the state’s policy in new land reclamation, encouraging industry, and expansion in communicating clear drinking waters in attempt to achieve as far as possible coverage as it is the most critical challenges Egypt faces.
For the previous, Egypt should work on producing cooperation and integration among the Eastern Nile basin states and utilizes fresh waters appropriately on the other hand. For achieving this, untraditional means should be sought such as water desalinization, reuse of agricultural drainage waters, and treated health drainage. Egypt should also work on increasing efficiency of aquatic resources through expansion in irrigation modern techniques, besides reducing the lost water and increase awareness of the public to protect water irrigation, drinking water, and industry from pollution as future is an extension of the past, so, present crises should be avoided in future.
Research contents:
- Chapter one includes the exciting and the future aqueous situation as an indicator for the aqueous crisis in Egypt.
- Chapter two includes the historical agreements that regulate the use of Nile water and the conflicts happening about it.
- Chapter three includes the upstream countries demands and its effect on the Egyptian aqueous security.
- Chapter four includes an analysis of joint cooperation mechanism between Egypt and Nile basin countries in terms of having international agreements and conventions.
- Final chapter includes the future scenarios that might affect Nile water and the proposed procedures to deal with risks and taking opportunities to achieve Egyptian aqueous security.
First: Research problem:
The aqueous problem imposed itself as one of the main subjects that carries hope in the future cooperation or threatens international conflicts that may lead to war.
It is expected that the water deficit may increase to several times higher within the next decade causing aqueous crisis, whether this crisis is caused by increased population, climate changing or the conflicts between upstream countries and downstream countries.
That’s why using educational curricula facing crisis is essential to face existing and future aqueous crisis, not to achieve positive results from dealing with it ,but to avoid its destructive effects .
Second: Research importance:
The research is gaining special significance in light of the important subtract of the Egyptian aqueous reality.
And with the increase on the aqueous deficient, this research comes to ring a bell as a reminder of the possibility of aggravation of existing and expected aqueous crisis and its social, economical , political and may be militarily consequences in the territory.
What is witnessed recently is the upstream countries desire to renegotiate again the legal agreements that organize water share and distributing it between African upstream countries and the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan which is considered messing up with people safety and gives a very dangerous signal for the aqueous status conditions .
It also affects the aqueous safety that affects directly the food supplying safety that affects generally Egyptian national security that keeps its quality and continuous supply at the same time, some of the non-Arab countries tries to overcome the of aqueous deficiency barrier , this interfere objective is to control the aqueous resources of the Nile basin countries and that requires more cooperation with Nile basin countries and being side to side for in order to set new strategies for aqueous resources management that deals with the existing aqueous crisis .
These strategies shall enter the implementation phase as soon as possible and here lies the importance of our research especially for its role in analyzing the existing aqueous C
resources as well as the future Egyptian aqueous situation that surly will have a lot of challenges in the future.
Third: Research Objectives:
- Understanding and analyzing the current situation and the upcoming evolution of water as an indicator for aqueous crisis in Egypt.
- Knowing the aqueous and development situation for Nile basin countries.
- Knowing the international agreements between Egypt and Nile basin countries and clarifying how dangerous the absence of the legal frame in the relation between Egypt and Nile basin countries.
- Knowing the upstream countries requirements and its effect of Egyptian aqueous safety.
- Knowing the common cooperation procedures between the countries of the two shores of Nile.
- Knowing the presented scenarios to solve the aqueous crisis to keep the Egyptian aqueous safety.
Research Questions:
- Is there deficiency in the aqueous resources in Egypt and Nile basin countries?
- Is the absence of general legal frame in the relation between Egypt and Nile basin countries is a reason of the aqueous crisis?
- Is Israel one of the reasons for the aqueous crisis?
- Is building dams in the upstream countries one of the reasons for the aqueous crisis?
- Will cooperation and integration between Nile basin countries solve the aqueous crisis?
- Are civil wars in upstream countries one of the reasons for the aqueous crisis in Egypt?
- Are there any strategies to solve the aqueous crisis in Egypt?
Research results:
- Egypt is suffering an aqueous crisis.
- Negotiation and the possibility of having real regional cooperation that carries a win-win situation between upstream and downstream countries is a real solution to solve the aqueous crisis.
- Solving the aqueous crisis mainly depends on changing the way we think of solving it.
- One of the best scenarios to solve the aqueous crisis is to increase the Nile income through moving wasted water revenue from Congo River in the Atlantic Ocean to the Nile basin.
Recommendations:
1- despite barricaded Egypt a number of agreements that ensure its historic rights in the waters of the Nile River , but there is a need to establish a legal framework and a new institutional includes all the countries of the basin in order to overcome the differences that exist currently, which fed often countries outside the basin, so that this the agreement as a constitution that respects and treats everyone in his shadow.
2- The importance of not losing sight of the impact of external factor on Egypt’s relations with Nile Basin countries, specifically on integration projects proposed within the framework of the Nile Basin Initiative.
3- requires dealing with the file of Nile water a concerted effort and cooperation, full of all the ministries and institutions involved, it may be appropriate to establish an office for the affairs of the Nile and the Nile Basin countries follow the President of the Republic and have the powers to ensure that the work planned and coordinated primarily targeted at achieving the security of Egypt Water.
4- Egypt must continue the principle of cooperation with the Nile Basin countries to achieve water security and the exploitation of their possession of these countries of capabilities to maximize the benefit of all and to benefit from the Nile water .
5- Need to reconsider in Egypt’s foreign policy towards Africa and Egypt’s active role in achieving political and economic stability in the Nile Basin countries even address any external intervention, seeking to marginalize the Egyptian regional role in Africa, which was confirmed by the study in the period in question.
6- The importance of making connections directly and indirectly with configurations internal to the Nile Basin countries ( civil society - the tribes - research institutions), which supports the position of Egypt have public opinion African that may affect the decision-maker and ensure that no decisions check harm Egyptian interests .
7- The importance of orientation direct to the Nile Basin countries and to seek agreements of economic , political and security with it in the manner that minimizes the negative effects of interventions foreign powers in the Nile Basin countries in an effort to dismantle the collective position of rejecting the rights of Egypt by the upstream countries.
8- Need to ensure the continued compatibility between the Egyptian position and the position in the Sudanese Nile waters negotiations and work to take advantage of the capacity to influence the Sudanese in the positions of some countries.
9- Need to follow up and see all the decrees issued by the World Bank and other institutions on the concepts of privatization and pricing of water, inches of water, and suggests that arise Unit in the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation specializes in international institutions and its attitude towards the issue of water in the Nile Basin , to the possibility of adopting an official position towards these concepts and verification of its goals.
10- Need to direct more attention to the Israeli moves in the Nile Basin countries to determine the extent intersection in some respects with the interests of Egypt in these countries.