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العنوان
A Proposed Multidimensional Model
for Predicting Financial Distress:
المؤلف
Abd ElKader, Noha Adel Mohamed.
هيئة الاعداد
باحث / نهى عادل محمد عبد القادر
مشرف / هيــــــام حســـــن وهبـــــة
مناقش / حسين محمدعيسى
مناقش / طارق الدمياطي
تاريخ النشر
2024.
عدد الصفحات
250 P. :
اللغة
الإنجليزية
الدرجة
الدكتوراه
التخصص
الأعمال والإدارة والمحاسبة (المتنوعة)
تاريخ الإجازة
1/1/2024
مكان الإجازة
جامعة عين شمس - كلية التجارة - قسـم إدارة الأعمـال
الفهرس
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Abstract

Introduction and research problem
Although there has been a growing interest, by researchers worldwide, to investigate corporate financial distress and its major determinants and to derive econometric models for its prediction, notably, studies that were conducted were context specific and cannot be objectively generalized to other countries and rendered mixed inconclusive results. As such, the main objective of this study is to assess the determinants of corporate financial distress and to develop a multidimensional econometric model for predicting corporate financial distress in the Egyptian context.
Research model
In the research model, independent variables represent four dimensions. The first dimension includes the financial indicators. The second dimension comprises the market-based indicators. The third dimension represents macroeconomic indicators. The fourth dimension encompasses corporate governance mechanisms.
Research objectives
To explore the factors affecting financial distress in Egypt as one of the developing countries striving to overcome its economic challenges.
To examine the effects of financial, non-financial, market-based, macroeconomic variables and corporate governance mechanisms on the likelihood of corporate financial distress in Egypt.
To develop a proposed multidimensional econometric model for predicting financial distress in the Egyptian context.
Research hypotheses
In order to achieve the research objectives, the researcher develops the following hypotheses:
H_1: A multidimensional econometric model will significantly predict financial distress.
H_1a: Financial ratios are significant predictors of financial distress.
H_1b: Market-based indicators significantly affect the likelihood of financial distress.
H_1c: Macroeconomic variables have an impact on financial distress prediction.
H_1d: Corporate governance practices have a significant negative effect on the probability of financial distress.
Results
Using comprehensive data of EGX100 listed firms, the researcher employs logistic regression analysis to examine the factors pertaining to financial distress including financial ratios, market-based indicators, macroeconomic factors, and corporate governance mechanisms.
Empirical results indicate that after controlling for the COVID19 effects, the most significant financial ratios in predicting corporate financial distress are the working capital to total assets ratio, earnings before interest and taxes to total assets ratio, and the sales to total assets ratio. Such ratios are negatively related to the likelihood of corporate financial distress. Whereas the market value of equity to total liabilities ratio, and GDP growth rate have a positive impact on the likelihood of financial distress. However, the retained earnings to total assets ratio, the corporate governance mechanisms, the firm market capitalization, the interest rate, and the consumer price index are insignificant in predicting corporate financial distress in the Egyptian context. The resulting model demonstrates outstanding classification accuracy at around 96%.