الفهرس 
Coastal areas urbanisation and vulnerability to CC impacts
SD MODEL TOWARDS A CONCEPTUALISED COMPREHENSIVE COASTAL VULNERABILITY INDEXOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Urbanization, climate change, and developmental processes significantly influences the emergence of diverse hazards. Coastal areas, in particular, face heightened vulnerability due to escalating human pressures, climatic stresses, and ongoing urbanization. The combination of high population densities, diverse ecosystems, and continuous urban development renders these regions vulnerability to severe impacts. Despite the availability of several Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) tools, none of them integrates the essential characteristics of comprehensiveness, flexibility, and temporal dynamism specifically tailored for local scales. The absence of such an integrated approach leaves a significant void in our ability to effectively assess and mitigate the multifaceted challenges faced by these high-risk regions. The main aim of the research is to systematically construct a comprehensive, flexible, and temporally dynamic CVA index and aims to address the existing gap by developing an integrated index construction process that accurately captures the complexities of coastal vulnerability.
The research methodology unfolds in two primary phases, excluding the introduction and conclusion: analytical and empirical. In the initial analytical phase, a systematic review is conducted utilizing the PRISMA method to scrutinize methods, scales, and variables employed in CVA studies specific to the Egyptian context. This phase encompasses a comparative analysis evaluating the flexibility and successfulness of existing CVA tools. It also identifies the existing gaps in the field of the CVA and develop a selected and aggregated list of comprehensive variables which serves as the basis for the empirical phase. Moving to the second phase, an inductive process for constructing an index is underway, involving three distinct steps. Diverse methodologies are applied across these steps, encompassing: 1) identification of complexities and interrelations among variables within coastal systems through a soft System Dynamic (SD) modelling, 2) reduction and weighting of variables based on expert opinions using a two-round Delphi technique, and 3) contextualization of the index through an examination of Damietta as a case study. Additionally, a guide for the application of the final index has been designed to elucidate and streamline its usage.
The empirical phase of the study produced crucial insights, including the articulation of a procedural index construction method. The research showcased the intricate complexities within coastal systems, highlighting significant interrelations among multi-dimensional variables. The selection and relative importance of indicators across dimensions were carefully examined. A context-specific process emerged, integrating context-based variables and adjusting weights, particularly in socio-economic and physical dimensions. The study emphasizes the importance of further testing in varied regional contexts to validate results and acknowledges the impactful contribution of context-based variables within the CVAs.
This research’s distinct value is accentuated by the construction of an integrative coastal vulnerability index, characterized by its incorporation of three key characteristics: comprehensiveness, flexibility, and temporal dynamism. The novelty of the study is further emphasized by its multi-dimensionality, while simultaneously ensuring flexibility through the provision of diverse usage scenarios based on the study scale and objective. The implications of this research extend beyond the academic realm, with tangible benefits for both the scientific community and practical decision-makers such as policymakers and urban planners. By offering a methodologically sound and locally contextualized index, this study aspires to provide a valuable resource for evidence-based decision-making. Furthermore, it aims to contribute to the formulation of adaptive strategies geared towards enhancing the resilience of vulnerable coastal regions, particularly in the context of Egypt. Despite the comprehensive of the study, limitations are acknowledged through the study. These limitations predominantly revolve around the selected scale, a choice driven by the considered emphasis on contextualization in the development of the index In conclusion, this research makes a substantial contribution to the field of Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) by offering valuable insights and methodologies for the application of the developed index across diverse coastal contexts. The emphasis on flexibility ensures adaptability, allowing for context-based modifications to enhance the utility and applicability of the index in various settings.