الفهرس 
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Abstract
The contingency theory has been introduced claiming one major assumption which is there is no global optimal solution that is applicable for any organization. Each organization has its own variables that may affect the success of any model according to its contingent factors. Contingent factors are classified either internal factors such as the size of the organization, the degree of uncertainty, and the production system or external factors such as the market share, degree of rivalry, and supply chain.
Big organizations are much more concerned with the strategic management than small and medium size organizations. For any given variable to be strategically successful, the contingent factors should be taken into consideration. The application of the contingency theory enables the organization to be proactive and well prepared to any given risk that it might face. Using the contingency theory means preparing a projected or predicted scenario for any doable situation either it is an opportunity or a threat to the organization. Preparing a simulation for almost every possible situation that might happen and take all the needed time to think about how to deal with it in the most effective and efficient way. It enables the organization to seize any possible opportunity in the best way and also to avoid any negative consequences from any possible risks. Using contingency theory may consume time in preparing such scenarios but on the other hand it may save organizational resources that might be wasted during the crises times resulting from the lag time needed to recognize the existence of an opportunity or a threat and how to deal with it if happened.
Strategic cost management as a concept is very much in congruence with the contingency theory as it is also a planning and controlling techniques used in order to manage the costs to make sure the resources of the organization are used efficiently and effectively. There are many of strategic cost management techniques in the management accounting literature which are categorized and classified to either cost control techniques, planning and performance evaluation techniques, or market oriented techniques. Each of them concerned with an aspect of the organizational performance but all of them come along in one major purpose which is maintaining a strategic competitive position for the organization on a long term perspective.
The traditional budgeting process is far from being a strategic cost management tool as it is based on the very basic concept of the accounting period. Accordingly, the traditional budgeting process is considered in the most recent literature as a stumble obstacle in the way of strategic cost management. In the meantime, it is not the best solution for this dilemma to neglect the budgets or not budgeting since failing to budget is not an excuse to not budget, it was proposed that modifying the budgeting process to fit in the strategic perspective of the organizations is the best answer to the question of “to budget or not to budget?”.
One major reason of why budgets are not appropriate for strategic concerns is the failure of the budget to reflect and predict the future which is obviously prevents the organization from depending on it even as an input element in its strategic plan, as you cannot depend on a tool that is already defected in planning the near future to plan the strategically. Another major reason why budgets are not appropriate for strategic planning is the period covered by the budget. The traditional budget is obviously a short term plan for only one year. The traditional budgeting process doesn’t care about the strategic perspective of the organization.
Investigating the most common reasons that leads to budget failing revealed that it could be either the incompetent forecasts, or the intentional budgetary frauds. Either ways these reasons result a budgetary slacks. Budgetary slacks happen when the budgeted numbers do not reflect the true attainable performance of the organization. Since this, it is not reasonable to use a tool that is not accurate and doesn’t help neither to plan nor to evaluate the performance. The intentional budgetary frauds usually happen due to negative moral hazards such as budgetary collusions. Accordingly, it was proposed to develop a new intelligent budget that considers both the competency in the planning and forecasting process and also the moral hazards of the budgeting team.
An intelligent budget as claimed is a budget that recommend using the rolling forecast method in forecasting the future which means the budget will stop from being a short term tool and starts to be a continuous process and long term tool. Rolling forecast enables the organization to continuously modify and edit the bases by which the budget has been prepared on. Rolling forecast uses the actual data of the current accounting period to be an input data to the budget of the very same period. Rolling forecast depends on a budgeting team that is equally representing every department of the organization and not part of any department in the same time. Rolling forecast is a controlling and evaluating tool for managers that makes the organization more agile and responsive to changes. Rolling forecast uses contingency theory in predicting almost all the possible scenarios that might happen and affect the budget which makes it much more responsive than ever.
Rolling forecast is a self-developing budget that detects the “dirty data” or inaccurate distorted data and exclude it to only use the “Clean data” or accurate data.
An intelligent budget as claimed is a budget that requires using a computerizes system to allocate the available resources and set performance targets and standards without the interference of the agents given all the input data of market researches, strategic objectives of the organization, the different possible scenarios, coalition possibilities, and bargaining powers of each department. The proposed intelligent budget focuses on the detection of any negative moral hazards or any fraud attempts.
A computer software has been developed to test such an assumptions and has been applied on hypothetical situation to run all the data and provide the hoped results. Different results have been come out for different inputs assuring the responsiveness of the model. Also a questionnaire has been distributed to validate the findings and it has validated the research hypotheses and the research findings.