الفهرس Only 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Many activities in human society and the environment are sensitive to climate variability and change. Natural resources, human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, coastal areas, and heating and cooling requirements are examples of climate-sensitive systems. Rising average temperatures are already affecting the environment. Climate change impacts also include shifting supply and access to key resources such as water. This research aims at evaluating such impacts on the inflow rates of the Nile River at high Aswan dam by using three regional climate model runs.The current research presents the impact of climate change on both temperature and precipitation (as the most important variables in terms of water resources assessments and climate identifiers) on the Nile basin based on 30-year regional climate model simulations for a baseline period (1961-1990) and a future period (2021-2050). The research followed the UK met office procedure to select six QUMP scenarios (Q0,Q2,Q6,Q8,Q11,Q16) out of 17 QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projection) ensemble members (UKCP09 - Murphy et al., 2009) for which boundary data was acquired from the UKMO (UK Met Office). This ensemble is based on the IPCC SRES scenarios (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios) (IPCC, 2000). This research used the scenario AIB which investigates the future with a balanced use of fossil and non-fossil energy sources. The results show that by using the QUMP scenarios the average temperature change varies between (1.23 to 2.93{u00B0}C), and the annual average precipitation over the Nile basin is expected to increase by (+5-11%), The mean annual increase of the flow at Dongola station for the QUMP scenarios is (+7.15-23.21%) with an average of (+14.26%) from the average annual flow of the baseline (98.21 BCM)