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Abstract
This study examines the effect of using inter and exit signals of three of the most common used technical analysis strategies on achieving abnormal return compared with the buy and hold strategy in the Egyptian security market. The tests were done using data for short term, relatively long term, during bull and bear market. Using daily closing prices during the period from 1-1-1998 to 14-1-2016, the results indicated that; First, market timing with technical analysis yields more return and reduces risk in general. Second, short term investing is not recommended, as it is less profitable even than bear market period. Third, in long term and during bull market technical analysis is more profitable than short term. Fourth and most interesting result is that technical analysis importance have been reduced during the last few years (even it is still yields more profits than buy and hold strategy) due to the effect of the Egyptian revolution on the security market. As for investors, they should use technical analysis trading rules to determine when to enter and exit the market, so that they can improve their investment decisions, as it leads to achieve abnormal return and reduces risk more than buy and hold strategy in all cases, while pay more attention for the current and political events than before. These results are of importance to individual and institutional investors, mutual fund managers, portfolio managers, technical analysts, brokerage companies, and other stakeholders