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العنوان
A hybrid dynamic approach for cost overrun risk analysis of the construction projects \
المؤلف
Abd Al Aaty, Ghada Taha.
هيئة الاعداد
باحث / غادة طه عبد العاطي
مشرف / علي شريف عبد الفياض
مشرف / محمد بدوي عبد المجيد
مناقش / محمد حجاب
تاريخ النشر
2023.
عدد الصفحات
359 p. :
اللغة
الإنجليزية
الدرجة
الدكتوراه
التخصص
الهندسة المدنية والإنشائية
تاريخ الإجازة
1/1/2023
مكان الإجازة
جامعة عين شمس - كلية الهندسة - الهندسة الإنشائية
الفهرس
Only 14 pages are availabe for public view

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Abstract

The Construction industry in Egypt is an indicator of development. It creates funding opportunities across various related sectors. This study is primarily concerned with construction project control methods (particularly residential projects) that may result in cost overruns from the macro level and micro level. This research proposed a hybrid system dynamics- discrete event simulation (SD-DES) model by first identifying the influencing cost risks in the literature, followed by a questionnaire survey and data analysis, using the importance index method. Then, the developed system dynamics model is bounded and causal relationships are formed in a causal loop diagram, which is followed by developing mathematical equations in the stock-flow diagram. The system dynamics model is broken down into five subsystems, namely, the construction subsystem, project scope subsystem, resource subsystem, schedule control, and cost target subsystem. After that system dynamics model is tested with the aid of ”Al Burouj Residental” Project and the simulation and sensitivity analysis are conducted. To allow a better understanding of cost performance from a strategic level, as well as operational level, as a consequence, the SD model is encapsulated into an event in DES, which resulted in two modules: Task and Continuity. The task module can be used to estimate the direct cost while the continuity module is for the indirect cost.
The hybrid dynamics approach is being tested using the ”Al Alamein Residents” building in Egypt, and then a simulation study is carried out to describe the dynamics of the rework cycle and its influence on time and cost, the material management cycle, the workforce management cycle, and the influence of the unexpected events on the project which decision-makers may overlook using traditional approaches.
The model can be established with the aid of a computer package based on a diagrammatic interface. The Vensim version 8.1.0 is used to formulate the causal loop diagrams. Meanwhile, the AnyLogic version 7.3.2 software package is used in this research to develop the stock-flow diagram for each subsystem, in addition, to encapsulating the system dynamics model into a discrete event simulation network.