الفهرس 
IntroductionOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Energy crisis is a global challenge must be faced, resulted from the resources limitation besides increasing in consumption. Egypt hasn’t been far from the rest of the world, in satisfying energy needs.
Natural gas & petroleum products are the main sources of energy in Egypt. Total primary energy consumption in Egypt exceeds 94% from fossil fuels [IMF, 2015]. Although energy use per capita and total energy use in Egypt is not high, Egypt has faced repeatable energy crises especially in supplying fuels for local market over the last few years.
One concept to overcome energy crisis; is to understand the concept of the gap between energy demand & supply. First part of the gap analysis, to investigate Egyptian energy “fuels” market, and how demands will evolve in the future.
This work targets the modeling of diesel, gasoline and fuel oil demand in Egyptian market and its forecasting. The concept adopted in the present work for modeling is based on dynamic econometric model using a developed program. This work has been induced due to the lack of reliable modeling of diesel, gasoline and fuel oil demand in Egyptian market and its forecasting. The current modeling depends on the conventional historical trend method. The historical trend method has limitations on evaluating demand regarding market variables (as pricing, population, ….etc.). The main diesel consumption model contains major sectors consumptions (industrial, agriculture and transportation) & aggregated one. The main gasoline consumptions model contains major grades consumptions (80, 92, and 95) & aggregated one. However, the main fuel oil model contain major sectors for consumption (Industrial and electricity). These models includes four variables (price, population, economic GDP and lagged consumption).The developed energy demand forecasting model is evaluated and applied to forecast Egyptian diesel, gasoline and fuel oil consumption (for sectors & aggregated one) till 2035.
Forecasts into the future also show higher consumption than predicted before via multilateral organizations. These petroleum products prices effect has proved to be too low that resulted in statistic change near zero and an increasing in the demand. However population demonstrates higher effect than economic and lagged consumption.
Second part of the gap analysis, to investigate Egyptian energy “fuels” production units (supply), and how production trend will evolve in the future. This work targets the modeling of the Egyptian crude oil refining unit. Simulation of refining process has been developed. This work has been induced due to the lack of availability of open source models for refining process. Moreover, the only two commercial sources have limitation in analysis specific types of Egyptian crude oils. Static simulation has been investigated to check the reliability of the modeling, via comparing the modeling with real case results. Dynamic simulation for open loop oil refinery has been investigated. The dynamic simulation has been adopted to study the effect of changing different variables on the yield production of the fuel. where the increase of middle distillates (Diesel) yield is mandatory for sustainable development. These static and dynamic models measure the effects of changing operating variables on the yields through three different case studies. The overall gap between the predicted supply and demand modeling results has been calculated. Moreover the importance of production facilities has been confirmed through the increase in yields when adopting any of the proposed case studies. Thus has been resulted in the decrease in cost between supply and demand at applying one of the proposed case studies. Another aspect of dynamic simulation of open loop control of facility has been examined through open source program (Modelica). where this program enables the graphical simulation impact of different variables on the production facility. In order to sustain the economic development of the Egyptian energy market, the review of the sustainability of supply chain for these production facilities has been reviewed. The parameters affecting the refineries sustainability supply chain have been collected and evaluated.