الفهرس 
Emissions Scenarios
Nile Basin HydrologyOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
The hydrological cycle will be affected by Global warming with significant influences on water resources availability. Such changes in the hydrological cycle component will have substantial effect on the local and regional hydrological systems which in order affects environmental, social and economic schemes.
This research aims to evaluate the climate change impact on water resources availability for hydropower production in Blue Nile Sub Basin in addition to new development intervention like Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the planned irrigation projects along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and Sudan using the results of RegCM4 Regional Climate Model nested with ECHAM5 General Circulation Model (Max Planck institute) to simulate the climatic procedures, and the obtained results are reported. The emissions trajectory of the A1B Scenario of ECHAM output was driven from the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP). The outcomes were then used as inputs for NAM Rainfall-Runoff model and the outputs from NAM were used in the hydrological model Mike Basin, also the Decision Support System model was used to implement the study scenarios.
The results show that the implementation of GERD to increase hydropower generation will decrease the average annual outflow from Sudanese dams (Rosieres, Sennar, Merowe) by 1.3 BCM, which almost represents the average annual evaporation losses from GERD, and will decrease the average annual inflow to HAD by 4 BCM, while it will increase the average annual hydropower generation in Ethiopia from almost insignificant to 12460 GWH. Also it will cause a noticeable increase of Sudanese average annual hydropower generation by 1527 GWH, while it will decrease HAD average annual hydropower generation by 468 GWH.
On the other hand, the implementation of GERD to fulfill the irrigation demands along the Blue Nile will decrease the average annual outflow from Sudanese dams (Rosieres, Sennar, Merowe) by 5 BCM due to the water requirements of new irrigation schemes in Ethiopia and Sudan, and will decrease the average annual inflow to HAD by 10BCM, while it will cause a decrease in the average annual hydropower generation in Ethiopia and Sudan by 623and 886 GWH respectively. Also it will decrease the average annual hydropower generation of HAD by 1239 GWH.
The evaluation of climate change effects on the Blue Nile Sub Basin, after the implementation of GERD to increase hydropower production based on DSS model, showed that the mean annual outflow from GERD will increase by an average value of 3.5 BCM due to the wetting trend of climate change. Also climate change impact will increase the average annual outflow from Sudanese dams by 1.8 BCM, and decrease the average annual inflow to HAD by 1 BCM. Climate Change impacts on hydropower generation from Blue Nile system shows an increase of the average annual hydropower generation from Ethiopia and Sudan by about 13,328 and 1767GWH respectively , and a decrease of the average annual hydropower generation from Egypt by 256 GWH.
The results showed that Eastern Nile energy production will increase at least by 83% after the implementation of GERD for hydropower priority, 59.5% after the implementation of GERD for irrigation demands priority, and by 91% due to the climate change impact on Eastern Nile.