الفهرس 
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Analysis of Impact PathwaysOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
The contribution of fossil fuels (mainly natural gas and oil) in
electricity generation in Egypt accounts for about 89.93% of the total
production in 2009/2010, the rest 10.07% is from hydro and wind
power. However, the price of electricity in Egypt reflects only the
direct cost of production.
The supply and use of energy causes damage to a wide range of
receptors, including human health, natural ecosystems, and the built
environment. Such damages are referred to as external costs, as they
are not reflected in the market price of energy. These externalities
have been traditionally ignored.
The externalities include the so-called social and environmental
effects, i.e. costs that must be born by third party which are not
incorporated in the production costs such as expenditures for impacts
of human health, natural ecosystem, climate change and depletion of
non-renewable resources.
In order to achieve a rational economic decision regarding the choice
of the energy sources, it is imperative that different options are
evaluated.
In the absence of systematic information based on quantifying
externalities of competing energy sources and technologies, the
Government of Egypt can not take necessary action for achieving
optimal allocation of resources through market forces.
Also, the need to avoid market distortions, caused by ignoring social
& environmental externalities, for attaining healthy economy is
becoming a necessity in day-to-day practice.
On the other hand, present prices have turned back to be heavily
subsidized. Costs of health impacts and environmental damage as well
as costs handed on to the future generations are not included in pricing
process.Evaluation and internalization of external costs of electricity
production has to be based on clear understanding of the consequences
on the environment that result from generation of the electrical
energy. This will certainly include airborne pollutants and global
warming impacts due to GHG emissions.
Taking account of these impacts in energy policy, planning and
operation could alter the magnitude and mix of resources used to meet
energy demand with salutary effects for the environment, public
health and long-term ecological and economic sustainability.
In this context, this thesis aims at quantifying externalities linked to
electricity generation in Egypt utilizing a variety of the available
energy resources and technologies.
The main objective is to establish externalities assessment on national
level via using new methodological elements for integration into the
existing cost accounting framework that reflects the new
developments in the assessment of external costs.
The present study comprises the following:
a) Literarily analysis, which takes into consideration the various
externalities studies conducted either for systematic research or
within the framework of a country-level or regional-based
analytical research projects. It also considers the variety of
methodological approaches that have received a special
importance alongwith research efforts exerted to externalities
studies.
b) Use of simple statistical relationships as well as series of complex
models and database.
This Work contains the following procedures:
5. Develop an effective ”bottom-up” methodology.
6. Assess fuel cycles (the entire cycle for each fuel type and
technology) that are incorporated in the Egyptian Generation
Expansion Plan and are potential to be mainstreamed soon in
the Egyptian Power System, in comparison with the Egyptian
most typical power plants.7. Assess different fuel cycles utilized in Egypt consistently,
represented by selected most typical Egyptian power plants
(this assessment includes evaluation of impacts associated with
conversion phase only).
8. Perform reliable assessments of marginal costs.
9. Identify key externality issues for future policies.
For each fuel cycle the accounting framework includes the application
of methodology to that specific fuel cycle, detailed quantification of
impacts and their evaluation in monetary terms.
The term ”fuel cycle” refers to the chain of processes linked to the
generation of electricity from a given fuel. The assessment of each
fuel cycle includes evaluation of the impacts associated with:
- construction of new plant;
- resource mining;
- transport of fuel, wastes, other materials;
- power generation;
- waste disposal; and
- electricity transmission.
Analysis begins with the identification of stages of fuel cycle under
assessment. Burdens and impacts are then described for each stage.
Priority areas for assessment are identified, based partly on the results
of earlier studies and partly on expert judgment. Realistic sites and
technologies are then selected for the full fuel cycle, in recognition of
the fact that they determine the magnitude of many impacts.
Impact assessment and valuation is performed using the ”damage
function” or ”impact pathway” approach. This approach assesses
impacts in a logical manner, using the most appropriate models and
data available.
Methods range from the use of simple statistical relationships, as in
the case of occupational health effects, to the use of series of complex
models and databases, as in the cases of acid rain and global warming
effects.
A detailed definition of both the fuel cycle and the system within
which the fuel cycle operates is provided, with respect to both time
and space. Typical data required include - Technological and emissions data
- The legal framework governing emissions, health and safety,
etc.
- Specifications of the fuel used
- Meteorological conditions affecting dispersion of atmospheric
pollutants
- Demographic data
- Condition of ecological resources
- The value systems of individuals which determine the
valuation of non-marketed goods.
The study has recognised the importance of selecting the most
appropriate dose/ response functions and models for the assessment of
pollution impacts.
Previous studies as well as expert judgement are used to identify the
functions to be used for damage assessment in the following areas:
- Human health
- Building materials
- Crops
- Critical resources
The acquired conclusions interpret the externalities significance,
which enhances the use of alternative power generation options,
particularly renewables and climate-friendly power production, such
as nuclear power and cleaner fossil technologies. It, also, guides to
the required improvements in fuel cycles used, combustion systems
and operational efficiency for maintaining the desired environmental
and social quality at a minimum externality cost.
The research considered here calls for transformative change from
conventional power sector planning to integrated resource planning,
which makes it possible to explore linkages, evaluate trade-offs,
internalize externalities and compare consequences, thereby help
develop an effective energy / power strategy that supports national
sustainable development goals.Results are, thus, presented and discussed. Also, further research in
this field is proposed.
Based on the contents of this thesis, the following paper has been
published:
Prof. Dr. Tawfik, M. A.; Prof. Dr. Fahmi, K. M. and Eng. Bedrous, M.
A. (2015). Quantifying Environmental Externalities in Egypt and its
Impact for Enhancing Alternative Electricity Options. Magazine of
Environmental Sciences, Institute of Environmental Studies and
Research, Ain Shams University.