الفهرس يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
 |  | from | 304 |  |  |
| | | from | 304 | | |
المستخلص
This thesis highlights the need of many organizations today for effective early warning
information systems (EEWIS) that can predict the future and help in preventing crises and
reducing their harmful effects. The main problem facing any Early Warning Information
System (EWIS) is the lack of effectiveness. An effective EWIS should be based on a reliable,
dynamic and consistent model, however the models currently available are mostly
deterministic, simplistic or inconsistent in application and assumptions; thus making them
unreliable and impractical. The goals of this thesis are: Firstly, to provide guidelines for system
analysts, designers, engineers and experts seeking to deal with crisis or disaster information
systems; secondly, to present a novel model for EEWIS that can improve the efficiency of
organizations in terms of crisis preparedness; and thirdly, to build an EEWIS that is capable of
increasing the accuracy of information and empowering individuals and communities
threatened by man-made hazards to act in sufficient time and in an appropriate manner so as to
reduce the possibility of personal injury, loss of life and damage to property or to the
environment. The work methodology in this thesis can be summarized into three main steps:
Firstly, the construction of a generic conceptual model that can be used to build an EEWIS,
and secondly, creating an intelligent technique to select the most important factors affecting
the risk or – in some cases – even directly stimulating it. Thirdly, developing a case study in
the law enforcement sector as a proof-of-concept for the generic model.
Developing the intelligent technique is one of the challenges undertaken in this thesis.
This challenge integrates the EWIS with a decision support method called the multi-factor/
multi-criteria method to select the most important factors affecting the risk or even directly
stimulating it. The EWIS will automatically calculate the weight of each criterion/indicator and
subsequently compare all the criteria according to their weight. If the weight of one criterion
is more than the weight of the others, this will reflect the importance of this criterion in
stimulating or increasing the risk compared to the other criteria. In our case study, which is
applied in the law enforcement sector, the most important factors contributing to improve the
effectiveness of the EWIS are determined through 10 pillars as follows: Integration,
Availability, Detectability, Predictability, Accuracy, Certainty, Flexibility, Functionality,
Usability and Reliability. By comparing the effectiveness factors of the suggested
EWIS with those of other systems, we have found that it has achieved good results, such as the
[IV]
following: Having a generic model, which can be used in different organizations and
sectors; achieving good results in capturing, detecting and analyzing
information about events/risks that are expected to occur or those that are highly probable;
having great reliability; and characterized by a high predictability and usability.