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العنوان
تقييم برنامج التعاون النقدى لدول الكوميسا الفترة 2005 – 2018 :
المؤلف
يوسف، يسرى محمد عبد الرحمن.
هيئة الاعداد
باحث / يسرى محمد عبد الرحمن يوسف
مشرف / فرج عبد العزيز عزت
مشرف / وائل فوزي عبد الباسط
مناقش / على لطفي محمود لطفي
مناقش / فرج عبد العزيز عزت
مناقش / فادية محمد عبد السلام
الموضوع
الاقتصاد.
تاريخ النشر
2014.
عدد الصفحات
223 ص. :
اللغة
العربية
الدرجة
الدكتوراه
التخصص
الإقتصاد ، الإقتصاد والمالية (متفرقات)
تاريخ الإجازة
1/1/2014
مكان الإجازة
جامعة عين شمس - كلية التجارة - الاقتصاد
الفهرس
يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام

from 223

from 223

المستخلص

The Study is divided into three main chapters as the following:
Chapter One:
COMESA Origin, Organizational chart and related institutions
This chapter tackles the origin of the COMESA community and the,
concepts related to limited currency convertibility, as well as the optimal
currency area. This chapter is divided into three sections:
Section I: COMESA Origin from a Historical Perspective
The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)
was established under the agreement reached at Kampala Conference
held in Uganda in ٥ November ١٩٩٣, under which the COMESA
replaced the Preferential Trade Area (PTA). The COMESA consists of ١٩
countries: Burundi, Comoros, Congo DR, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda,
Seychelles, Sudan, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The
COMESA objectives are represented in cooperation between the member
countries in several fields: free trade and customs cooperation, monetary
and financial affairs, encouraging and protecting investment, industry,
agriculture, energy, and transportations and communications.
This Section also refers to the COMESA organizational structure
which is composed of the following bodies:
١- Authority: the top presidential system in the COMESA, composed
of presidents of states and governments, and responsible for the
general policy of the community and supervising its performance
of its executive functions, objectives and principles.
٢- Ministerial Council: composed of ministers specified and selected
by the member countries, and responsible for supervising and
managing the community’s activities, as well as developing these
activities and approving the secretariat budget.
٣- Committee of Governors of Central Banks: composed of
governors of central banks of the member countries, and
responsible for developing programs and plans in the fields of
financial and monetary cooperation.
٤- Government Committee: responsible for developing programs
and work plans in all sectors of cooperation, excluding the
financial and monetary sector.
٥- Technical Committees: responsible for many tasks, such as those
related to administrative, financial, legal, agricultural and others.
Examples of these committees include: Committee of Financial
and Monetary Affairs, Committee of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates, Committee of Human Resources, Committee of
Statistical Affairs, and Committee of Energy.
Secretariat and Secretary General: the Secretary General is considered
a secretary for the Authority and the Ministerial Council, and is
responsible for managing the COMESA and representing it in the
periodical meetings.
Consultative Committee: composed of businesspersons and other
interested communities.
The Section also mentions the COMESA affiliate and subsidiary
authorities and institutions since the signing of the COMESA establishing
agreement in November ١٩٩٣ till now. These are as follows:
١- Regional Investment Agency (RIA)
It was established in ٢٠٠٦ with the aim of making the COMESA
region attractive for regional and international investments in the long
term; encouraging investment and building capacities; and helping the
member countries to create an appropriate investment climate that is
capable of attracting foreign direct investments (FDI).
٢- PTA Bank
It was established in ١٩٨٥ with the purpose of providing financial
support necessary to achieve development in the COMESA region
through presenting medium- and long-term loans. It also acts as credit
intermediary between the member countries and the international
financial organizations.
٣- COMESA Clearing House (CCH)
It was established in ١٩٨٤ in order to settle commercial payments
resulting from trade exchanges between the member countries. The
settlement is carried out through the Regional Payment and Settlement
System (REPSS) which settles payments among the member countries on
a daily basis via using the national currencies of the countries using it,
and using the US dollar or the euro as an intermediary currency for final
settlement.
٤- COMESA Monetary Institute (CMI)
It was established in ٢٠٠٨ with the aim of conducting technical studies
necessary for presenting assistance in implementing the agreed monetary
cooperation program; following up the preliminary stages of forming the
monetary union; and making recommendations for the Committee of
Governors of Central Banks.
٥- Reinsurance Company
It was established in ١٩٩٠ as an affiliate company of the PTA Bank
with the purpose of encouraging intra-trade and integration among the
COMESA member countries through conducting insurance and
reinsurance operations on the commercial activities to guarantee a highquality
commercial and banking service.
٦- African Trade Insurance (ATI)
It was established in ٢٠٠١ as a multi-national financial institution
aiming to transforming the risks in Africa into real opportunities for trade
and investment. This is to be done through presenting insurance services
on credit granted to exports against political risks. It also presents
insurance services on investment.
٧- Leather and Leather Products Institute (LLPI)
It was established in ١٩٩٠ with the aim of developing the leather
industry in the COMESA member countries.
Section II : Different Concepts of Limited Currency Convertibility
These concepts are as the following:
١- No Currency Convertibility: which means the impossibility of
substituting a country’s currency for another currency within the
same community, or using it in marketing external transactions.
٢- Limited Currency Convertibility: which means the possibility of
substituting a country’s currency for other currencies, and the
possibility of imposing some restrictions on external trade and
invisible transactions only against countries outside the region.
٣- Full Currency Convertibility: which means that any restrictions
on all transactions are not allowed whether these transactions are
commercial, invisible or capital. This requires the currency to be
convertible against all other currencies, and not necessarily against
those of the countries inside the region.
٤- Currency Convertibility according to Obligations of Article ٨
of the IMF’s Agreement: this degree of convertibility allows
imposing some restrictions on all transactions (commercial, capital,
or invisible), but it does not allow imposing any restrictions on
substitution. It does not necessarily require the convertibility of a
country’s currency against all other currencies or the currencies
inside the region.
This Section also deals with the conditions necessary for achieving
limited currency convertibility. These conditions are represented in the
importance of adopting adequate policies on the macroeconomic level
(monetary and financial policies); achieving an adequate competitive
exchange rate; the availability of an adequate level of international
reserves with the authorities; and efficient allocation of available
resources.
Section III: Optimal Currency Area (OCA)
This Section tackles the conditions necessary for the achievement
of an optimal currency area. These conditions are represented in the
similarity of economic cycles of the member countries; flexibility in
determining salaries and prices; ease of transmission of production factors among member countries; and the availability of a system for
monetary transfers among the member countries.
This section also reviews the pros and cons relating to joining the
optimal currency area. As for the pros, the single currency plays an
important role in facilitating the transmission of goods and services and
assets among the monetary union countries. It also reduces the cost of
commercial transactions in goods and services, and facilitates the
movements of capitals among the monetary union countries.
As regards the cons, joining a single currency area implies in the first
place losing a country’s monetary independence, especially in relation to
implementation of the monetary policy, and to a lesser degree in relation
to independent financial policy.
Generally, the single currency is seen as one of the most important
fruits of economic integration among the member countries in any
community. This is due to the benefits of establishing a single currency
on the micro and macro levels. Among these benefits are: joining a
common market to benefit from the different advantages relating to the
big size of the market; benefiting from production opportunities on a
large scale, and thus benefiting from large-scale economies; as well as
providing more options for customers and more competitive prices, as
different from the member countries in a common market without a
single currency.
Chapter Two:
Evaluation of The COMESA Monetary Cooperation Program –
This chapter deals with the CMOESA Monetary Cooperation
Program, and the assessing of the economic performance of the
COMESA member states in accordance with the agreed criteria set in the
monetary cooperation program at the end of the First Stage of this
program ٢٠٠٥-٢٠١٠. Also, the chapter refers to the obstacles facing the
achievement of monetary integration among the COMESA countries, and
the positive areas to go from. Hence, this chapter is divided into four
sections:
Section I: Evaluation of the CMOESA Monetary Cooperation
Program
This Section deals with the COMESA monetary cooperation program
as one of the issues on the agenda of monetary cooperation. This program
consists of primary and secondary criteria which are to be implemented
through three time periods, progressing from one stage to the other and
becoming more restrictive in the later stages, to end in ٢٠١٨ with the
issuance of an African single currency. It is worthy mentioning that the
primary criteria of the COMESA monetary program are as the following:
١- The budget deficit (excluding grants) as a percentage of GDP does
not exceed ٥%.
٢- Annual inflation rate does not exceed ٥%.
٣- Reducing the Central Bank’s finance of the budget to zero.
٤- International reserves cover at least ٤ months of merchandise
imports (excluding non-factor revenues).
Section II: Assessing Economic Performance for the COMESA
Countries at End of the First Stage of Monetary Cooperation
Program (٢٠٠٥-٢٠١٠)
After the end of the first stage of the COMESA monetary cooperation
program (٢٠٠٥-٢٠١٠), the performance of the COMESA member
countries was generally unsatisfactory as regards both the primary and
secondary criteria. The status of implementation for the countries was
assessed in relation to eight numerical criteria (٣ primary criteria and ٥
secondary ones) in addition to criteria relating to the exchange rate and
the interest rate, as well as the central bank finance of the budget deficit.
The assessment reveals that no country has managed to finish the first
stage achieving all the eight criteria. Also, it points out that Eritrea was
the only country which did not achieve any of the criteria, and that
Burundi and Comoros achieved only two criteria of the total. The best
performance was that of Djibouti which achieved ٦ criteria from a total of
٨ criteria, followed by Rwanda, Libya and Mauritius which achieved ٥
criteria, then Ethiopia, Zambia and Swaziland (٤ criteria), and the rest (٩
countries) achieved ٣ criteria.
Section III: Obstacles Facing the Achievement of Monetary
Integration among the COMESA Countries.
There are several obstacles facing the monetary integration process in
the COMESA region. These obstacles can be summarized as follows:
١- General Obstacles
- Weak political commitment
- Diversified and Interrelated African communities
- Weak awareness and participation, and absence of a mechanism
for enforcement of penalties
- Excessive connection to foreign countries
٢- Obstacles relating to Convergence Criteria of the Monetary
Cooperation Program
- Some convergence criteria are unrealistic.
- Weak legal and institutional arrangements in the COMESA
region
- Weak commitment to programs and effective participation
- Increased burdens on the financial sector
Positive Areas to Go from
 Enhancing and supporting the Regional Payment and Settlement
System (REPSS)
 Activating the role of the African Trade Insurance (ATI) agency
 Increasing the capital of the PTA Bank
Chapter Three:
A Comparative Study with the European Union
This chapter deals three sections
Section I: EU experience and Factors of Success
١- Origin of European Union
٢- Delor Committee and Maastricht Agreement and Monetary Union
٣- Stages of Monetary Union and Establishment of European Central
Bank (ECB)
- Stage One: ١ July ١٩٩٠ – ٣١ December ١٩٩٣
- Stage Two: ١ January ١٩٩٤ – early ١٩٩٩
- Stage Three: ١٩٩٩
٤- EU Monetary Cooperation Program
٥- European System of Central Banks (ESCB)
- Executive Board
- Council of Governors
- General Assembly
٦- Factors of Success of EU Experience
- Gradual achievement of monetary union
- Meeting the convergence criteria among macroeconomic
indicators
- Independence of the ECB from other central banks of member
countries
- Availability of political support and national desire
Section II: Assessing the Economic Performance of the COMESA
Member States in Accordance with the Convergence
Criteria of the EU Monetary Cooperation Program.
The assessment of the COMESA member countries in accordance
with the EU monetary cooperation program was as the following:
 Inflation not exceeding ١.٥ percentage point from inflation in
three member countries with the least inflation rates: ١٦
COMESA countries did not achieve this criterion, while ٣
countries achieved it; namely, Zimbabwe (١.٥%), Libya (٣.٣%)
and Comoros (٣.٩%).
 Government budget deficit not exceeding ٣% as a percentage of
GDP: only Djibouti achieved this criterion (٠.٥%), and the
remaining ١٨ countries did not achieve it.
 Total public debt not exceeding ٦٠% of GDP: ١٠ COMESA
member countries did not achieve this criterion at end of the
first stage in ٢٠١٠, and they even did not manage to achieve it
in any year during the first stage (except for Congo DR which
recorded ٦٤.٥% in ٢٠١٠ only, but it exceeded the criterion in
the remaining years). On the other hand, ٩ COMESA member
countries did not exceed the ٦٠% set in the criterion with the
end of the first stage in ٢٠١٠, of which ٣ countries managed not
to exceed this percentage along the first stage.
Section III : Proposed Econometric test
 The test was carried out on five economic criteria from the
criteria of the COMESA monetary cooperation program:
inflation, international reserves, domestic liquidity (money
supply), growth rate, and exchange rates. This was done to
specify the countries among which there can be a monetary
integration in the long term. It was difficult to select one of the
financial criteria because of the difficulty in obtaining financial
data for the COMESA member countries for long periods and in
the form of time series which can enable the carrying out of the
test and reaching highly reliable results.
 The data of Zimbabwe was excluded from the test on the
inflation criterion due to unavailable data of this criterion during
٢٠٠٣-٢٠٠٨. Also, Zimbabwe was excluded from the test carried
out on the criterion of exchange rate because the fluctuations in
the exchange rates of Zimbabwe exceeded ١٠٠٠% in many
times.
 Congo DR and Djibouti were excluded due to unavailability of
sufficient observations to carry out the test on the criterion of
international reserves.
 The test results were as the following:
١- For the inflation criterion, integration is accepted between only three countries: Egypt, Burundi and Uganda.
٢- For the international reserves criterion, integration is accepted between only four countries: Egypt, Burundi, Libya and Mauritius.
٣- For the growth rate criterion, integration is accepted between
only four countries: Congo DR, Ethiopia, Malawi and Sudan.
٤- For the exchange rate criterion, integration is accepted
between fourteen countries: Congo DR, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Zambia, Malawi, Rwanda, Seychelles, Swaziland, Uganda, and Mauritius.