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العنوان
العلاقة التفاعلية بين المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية واسعار الاسهم مع التطبيق على البورصة المصرية /
المؤلف
على، سليمان سعيد حسن.
هيئة الاعداد
باحث / سليمان سعيد حسن على
مشرف / عبد الهادى عبد القادر سويفى
مناقش / جمال إبراهيم حسن
مناقش / أحمد حمد الله السمان
الموضوع
الاقتصاد المصرى والبورصة. البورصات.
تاريخ النشر
2013.
عدد الصفحات
226 ص. :
اللغة
العربية
الدرجة
الدكتوراه
التخصص
الإقتصاد ، الإقتصاد والمالية (متفرقات)
الناشر
تاريخ الإجازة
28/7/2013
مكان الإجازة
جامعة أسيوط - كلية التجارة - الأقتصاد
الفهرس
يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام

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from 238

المستخلص

This thesis determines the interactive relationship between macroeconomic indicators and stock prices in the Egyptian Stock Exchange. It starts with discussing the related previous researches to choose the most significant variables in the mentioned relationship. The chosen variables include interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, inflation, the gold’s price, GDP, and Standards and Poor’s 500. The study adopts both the descriptive and the econometric approach to study the interactive relationship between the chosen seven variables and the Egyptian Stock Exchange Index. The study used the Johansen co-integration test to determine the long-term relationships, and the Granger causality test with vector error correction model to determine the short run causality relationship. Finally, the study adopts GARCH model to determine the effects of volatility in macroeconomic variables on EGX30.
Main results of the study include 1) the existence of a co integration relationship between the economic variables and the stock market index 2) the existence of a positive long term relationship between Egyptian Stock Market index (EGX30), money supply, and Standards and Poor’s 500 3) the existence of an inverse long term relationship between the index, interest rate, real GDP 4) the long-term relationship between the has not index, consumer price index, exchange rate, and the gold price been proved 5) The causality tests shows a two ways causal relationship between the index and the interest rate. However, a one way causal relationship from exchange rate toward the index has been proved 6) the economic variables shocks has no significiant impact on the index and vice versa 7) GARCH model proved that volatility in exchange rate, gold price, and CPI leads to volatility in the stock market index. Also, volatility in the index leads only to volatility in gold price. The study recommends improving the efficiency of the stock market through information accessing and unifying trading rules. Finally the author has drawn attention to some policy implications at both macro and muicro level.