الفهرس 
chapter 1Only 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
The construction industry is one of the most dynamic. risky,
challenging and rewarding fields. Previous researches suggested that the
construction project is particularly subjected to more risks than other projects
because of its complexity. Risks cause cost overrun and/or schedule delay in
many construction projects. In addition, risks can affect productivity,
performance, quality and budget of construction projects. Few researches
were conducted to solve this problem, especially in the Middle East.
This ~h presents a consistent methodology for project risk
management by establishing a computer program, which presents a generic
process model, common language for describing risks, remedial actions of
risks and probabilistic model for cost contingency calculation. Hopefully,
this software package will help to facilitate more effective risk management
while allowing all. project participants to develop and share a greater
uaderstanding of project risks for improving performance. It will also help the
CODtractor to arrive •at a reasonable contingency sum and to allocate
coatingency between various project activities. In the computer model,
probabilistic cost estimation st8rts with making an inventory of project risks
throughout the project. These risks are the inputs in the risk model, for which,
a Monte Carlo simulation has been used to combine the individual risk items
to a total cost probability distribution. The program results have been verified
by cOnducting a comparison with values of an actual project constructed in
Egypt, and• a good agreement was obtained. A field survey has been also
conducted, through interview sessions including 1 S construction contractors
in Egypt, to identifY and evaluate the methods used by contractors to compute
the project cost contingency. The proposed computer program prepared by
the researcher was attached to the questionnaire to assure its simplicity and
applicability.