الفهرس | Only 14 pages are availabe for public view |
Abstract The construction industry is one of the most dynamic. risky, challenging and rewarding fields. Previous researches suggested that the construction project is particularly subjected to more risks than other projects because of its complexity. Risks cause cost overrun and/or schedule delay in many construction projects. In addition, risks can affect productivity, performance, quality and budget of construction projects. Few researches were conducted to solve this problem, especially in the Middle East. This ~h presents a consistent methodology for project risk management by establishing a computer program, which presents a generic process model, common language for describing risks, remedial actions of risks and probabilistic model for cost contingency calculation. Hopefully, this software package will help to facilitate more effective risk management while allowing all. project participants to develop and share a greater uaderstanding of project risks for improving performance. It will also help the CODtractor to arrive •at a reasonable contingency sum and to allocate coatingency between various project activities. In the computer model, probabilistic cost estimation st8rts with making an inventory of project risks throughout the project. These risks are the inputs in the risk model, for which, a Monte Carlo simulation has been used to combine the individual risk items to a total cost probability distribution. The program results have been verified by cOnducting a comparison with values of an actual project constructed in Egypt, and• a good agreement was obtained. A field survey has been also conducted, through interview sessions including 1 S construction contractors in Egypt, to identifY and evaluate the methods used by contractors to compute the project cost contingency. The proposed computer program prepared by the researcher was attached to the questionnaire to assure its simplicity and applicability. |