الفهرس 
INTRODUCTIONOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
The Nile Basin countries face many socioeconomic problems resulting from the
population increase and climatic changes. These factors and many others have
challenged the upper Nile Basin countries to start the implementation of water related
projects that will affect the quantity and quality of Egypt’s water share in the Nile
river flow. The study covered the area of Equatorial Lakes as well as the Blue Nile.
The objective of the study is, therefore, to quantify the impact of proposed water
related development projects on Egypt’s water share in the Nile River flow at Aswan.
Accordingly, several water resources development scenarios in the upper Nile are
addressed. The Nile - Decision Support Tool (Nile-DST), is used to study the impact
of those scenarios on the inflow to Aswan High Dam (AHD).
EIGHT scenarios are addressed as follows: (1) Agriculture developments in the
Equatorial Lakes Region (Low to High Demand is assumed); (2) Scenario number
one with the operation of Jonglei Canal phase 1 (3.8 BCM); (3) Scenario Number one
with operation of Jonglei Canal Phase 2 (7 BCM); (4) Increase of flow from
equatorial lakes resulting from Climate Change; (5) development of four proposed
hydropower stations on the Blue Nile; (6) Scenario 5 and integrated water resources
development of Tana-Bels (2 BCM withdrawal from Lake Tana); (7) Scenario 6 and
agriculture development in Ethiopia calculated at Border dam (3 BCM withdrawal);
and (8) Scenario 7 and agriculture development in Ethiopia calculated at Border and
Mendaia Dams (3, and 5 BCM withdrawal, respectively).
The water resources development at Lake Victoria has negative impacts that ranges
from 11.6 to 16% from the withdrawal value at the exit of Lake Victoria, however, the
impacts is positive at Aswan and ranges from 4.3% to 0.6% for different withdrawal
scenarios from 1 to 20 BCM in case of the construction of Jonglei canal Phase 2.
While the increase of the Outflow from Lake Victoria due to Climate changes has a
positive impact at Aswan ranged from 0.17% to 5.17% according to the increase in
the inflow that ranges from 1-20 BCM.
On the other hand the impact of the water resources development at Blue Nile has
significant negative impacts on the Nile flow at AHD. The development of
Hydropower only without any agriculture expansion will result a decrease of the flow
at AHD amounted 0.47 BCM, regardless the impacts of filling the four dams, which
should be optimized to decrease the huge negative impacts of the water used for
filling the reservoirs. Obviously, the impact of agriculture expansion for scenarios 6-8
have a significant and severe impacts ranges from 0.7% to 13.1 % reduction of the
Nile flow at Aswan according to the agriculture demand that ranges from 2 to 10
BCM.
That is to say for example the impacts of 10 BCM withdrawals resulting from
agriculture or any consumptive development in the Equatorial lakes will result a 2.2%
decrease of the Natural Nile River Flow at ASWah, while the same development
projects at Ethiopian Plateau will result a significant 13.1 % decrease of the Natural
flow at Aswan (6 times of Equatorial Lakes).