الفهرس 
Study Objectives
Technology CooperationOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
 |  | from | 355 |  |  |
| | | from | 355 | | |
Abstract
This research deals with the climate change and its variability that are likely to impose additional pressures on water availability, water accessibility and water demand. It is an attempt to assess the vulnerability of River Nile availability due to the predicted climate changes and climate variability from on one side and the possible changes of the human activities in on the other side under different withdrawal or gain from the equatorial riparian countries. This research has been conducted for different selected locations in basin wide. The vulnerability of the flow yield was investigated at different locations in the basin wide; Pakwash” Albert lake ’Exit”, Mongala, , Sudd exit, Malakal, Jebel Aulia reservoir, Dongla and the Aswan High Dam (AHD) in terms of inflow for all the selected location and inflow, storage, net-evaporation and elevation for the AHD Reservoir. The trade-off analysis between the impacts of Jonglie Canal phase one, phase two and the baseline case ”reference case” were carried out. The Jonglie Canal was suggested and studied as onone of hard solution adaptive strategies to mitigate the shortage of the water availability at downstream countries. This assessment used the data in 10 day concurrent records for net basin supply during the period of 63 64 years of hydrological time series as a time horizon of the study for the natural state which included the extremes value of the net basin supply of the Lake Victoria flow yield until now. A period with 40 years of hydrological time series was selected as a dry period and anther one for 14 years as a wet period. Different suggested scenarios for decreasing and increasing the outflow from the Lake Victoria were suggested. The impacts of these scenarios have been drawn in term of different trend analyseis for the changes of the flow yield and the percentage of these changes. The simulated flow series for those suggested scenarios were compared with the reference case. The NILE-DST, river simulation and reservoir management component model have been used to assesassess the scenarios of the impact of climate change and human activities in the study areas.
The relationship between the proposed scenarios in case of decreasing decrease and increasing increase of the flow yield, the rate of the flow changes and the percentage of the flow changes at the selected locations in the basin wide have been driven in term of trend analysis. These analyses were investigated for the three cases under the study; natural flow, dry period and wet period with and without the operating of the Jonglie Canal with its two phases. For example; The resulting results from trend analysis at Dongla have shown that: in a dry period; there are slightly gradual decreasing decreases in the flow at Dongla under the suggested decreasing decrease scenarios from Lake Victoria outflow between 68.29 BCM to 65 .76 BCM for the lowest and highest decreasing scenarios respectively and possible change between 0.17 BCM and 2.17 BCM with the percentage of change with 0.24% and 3.94% regarding to the reference case for low and high withdrawals (decreasing) scenarios respectively. In a wet period; the gradual decrease in available flow at Dongla is between 68.264 to 64.572 BCM at low and high decreasing scenarios with the different from baseline with 3.88 and percentage of the changes about 0.279% to 5.67% respectively. By operating the Jonglie Canal phase one; an additional flow at DongleDongola around 4.95 BCM and with operating the canal after phase two is 10.47 BCM. Generally, the impacts due to the proposed scenarios at the different selected locations have been investigated basin wide and the result showed that there are significant impacts at Pakwash, Mongala and Sudd exit which are considered very sensitive and highly vulnerable due to any changes blew or over 5 BCM from the outflow from Lake Victoria. theseThese impacts are gradually decreasing at Malakal and Jebel Aulia dam which are considered less sensitive and moderate vulnerable due to the proposed scenarios as a result of merging the whiteWhite Nile with the Sobat outflow. Also these impacts are slightly sensitive and low vulnerable at the input flow at Dongla and Aswan High Dam that is considered to be less vulnerable due to these changes even under the high rate of changes as a result of merging the Blue Nile with the main Nile. Finally the Nile-DST and the developed dynamic trends analysis could be considered a good tool to support the decision makers. These tools help in successfully addressing and studying the different adaptive strategies successfully to face the challenges in the Nile Basin.