الفهرس Only 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Mega projects such as wastewater treatment facilities (WWTF)are
characterized by being huge in size, complex, and associated with many risks.
In 2002, USAID reported that 90% of Egyptian rural-areas holding about four
million capita suffering the lack of wastewater treatment facilities and require
seven billion US$ investments, which is beyond the available national
resources. With the huge investments required, any percentage of risk
allowance represents a significant value and accordingly need to be accurately
determined.
This Research introduces a novel approach to handle risk at the work-package
level to determine accurate contingencies. The approach depends on a detailed
cost analysis to determine the effective packages that contribute to the major
project cost and on an investigation regarding the effective (major) risk factors
affecting these packages. Proper probabilities and impacts are then assigned
individually for each package to build the model and Monte Carlo simulation is
used to determine the proper risk allowance.