الفهرس 
الباب الاوليوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
Study summary
An Economic study of wheat production and consumption in Gharbia Governorate Under the Economic Reform Policy
Agriculture in ARE is one of the main pillars of the national economy as it contributes in developing the other productive sectors through providing production requisites, food and cloth necessary to the human beings .
Wheat, as one of important cearols crops contributes to large extent in this field.
The study includes three chapters, the first chapter contains : preface and referred review of the previous studies . The second chapter contains wheat production and consumption in ARE and in El-Gharbia Governorate and the factors affecting on wheat consumption in Egypt, meanwhile the third chapter includes the choice of the sample, study area, wheat production & cost and wheat consumption & manufacture in the study sample.
Wheat productivity from feddan increased in the last years as it amounted 17 ardab in 1998 and this led to an increase in the domestic production to 6 million tonnes. Though there is still a gap between production and consumption. This gap can be filled by increasing the feddan productivity through expansion in cultivating the new high productive varieties with continuation in horizontal expansion, besides donsumption rationalization. The research concentrates in wheat local production, which is unable to fulfil the consumption needs.
The problem of bread in Egypt aroused from increasing demand due to over population and changing consumption styles resulted from increased immigration from country to urban.
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Lower Egypt represents 50% of total wheat cultivated area and EL-Gharbia Governorate occupies the fifth rank among the republic governorates in wheat area and production.
The research also aims at studying the effect of economic liberalization policy in the agricultural sector on wheat production and consumption on the republic level in general and in EL-Gharbia Governorate in particular.
The study ::used some methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis and the research depended on field questionnaire in estimating production function, costs and consumption, besides using time chains data.
The first chapter data referred to the agricultural production in this governorate is valued L.E. 2944 million as a period average (1993-1998) and the agricultural production value in of wheat represents about 6.8% of the agricultural production value EL-Gharbia Governorate and about 33.3% of cash value of winter crops and about 4.8% of cash value of. wheat in the ARE . For permanent clover as the first compe etata ive crop to wheat is decreasing continuously, where as threa reduced on the republic level from 29.7% in 1993 to 26.98% in 1998 of the total winter crops area in the republic. ,ln this governorate , clover area reduced also from 40.8% in 1993 to 33.5% in 1998 of the total winter crops area.
The second chapter deals with wheat production and consumption under economic liberalization policy and is consisted of three subchapters: The first includes wheat production and costs in ARE and in EL-Gharbia Governorate as well as the definitive factors to wheat area .
It also deals with studying wheat area development, production productivity in ARE and the governorate after and before applying economic liberalization policy (1976 — 1998 ) , where as wheat area in the republic before this policy ( 1976- 1986 ) was generally decreasing and moral statically with
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decrease rate 1.2% annually of period average , meanwhile alter
the policy (1987-1998), wheat area increased with increase rate 5.1% annually from period average .
It is expected that wheat area will reach to 3893 thousand feddans in Egypt in the year of 2010. For wheat production, before and after economic liberalization increased generally by
0.33% and 5.14% annually from the average of the two periods respectively.
It is also expected that wheat production will amount 10040 thousand tonnes in the year 2010. For wheat feddan productivity, before and after economic liberalization it increased generally during the two periods by 1.6% and 1.85%
annually from the average of the two periods , and it is expected to amount 19.32 ardab in 2010.
In El-Gharbia Governorate, the study showed from area, production and productivity development’ in wheat during the period before and after economic liberalization, that wheat area before liberalization was decreasing by 1.5% annually of the average of the period, meanwhile the second period ( after liberalization ) wheat area increased morally and statically by 3.3% annually from the average of that period .
It is expected that wheat area will amount 172 thousand feddans in El-Gharbia Governorate. As for wheat production, it increased by 0.67% and 5.5% in general before and after liberalization of the average of the two periods respectively .
It is expected that wheat production in this governorate will amount 500 thousand tonnes in 2010’.
For wheat feddan productivity it increased generally during study period by 0.24 and 0;35 ardab annually from the average of the two periods respectively .
This subchapter deals with wheat feddan production costs and net income in ARE and in the mentioned governorate before and after economic liberalization. On (he level of the republic. The costs of wheat production increased during the study period
by 15.5% , 12.7% annually from the average of the two periods. It is expected that cost average of wheat feddan production in Egypt will amount L.E. 2569 in 2010 and for net income from wheat feddan increased before and after economic liberalization by 19.3%, 4.7% from the average of the two periods respectively and that indicates to decreasing net income after liberalization than before . It is expected that net income of wheat feddan in Egypt will amount L.E 1267 in 2010 .
On the level:of the governorate, the study showed that production cost of wheat feddan increased during the study period (before and after liberalization) by 14%, 14.3% annually of productivity cost average for the two periods respectively and it is expected that the cost average of wheat feddan production in this governorate will amount LE 2863 in 2010 .
But for net income from feddan it increased before and after liberalization by 19% , 1.7% annually from the average of the two periods and that showed decrease in the annual rate of the increase in net income from wheat feddan as result of the continuous increase in production costs. It is expected that net income from wheat in the governorate will amount L.E. 946 in
2010 .
This sub chapter also deals with studying the definitive factors for wheat area — the most important factors are : farm price , net income from feddan , feddan cost average , crop importance for the farmer , prices of competitive crops , feddan productivity , supply and demand , income from one invested pound , facilities of crop storage , fixing price of selling unit of the crop , marketing facilities ... etc.
The sub - chapter deals with studying the response of supply for wheat crop before and after economic liberalization as it showed the most important factors affected on wheat area before economic liberalization was it : modificated farm price of broad beans, farm price of cotton, relative profitability of wheat, broad beans, net income form a feddan of permanent clover, wheat area in the year before the period in the previous year .
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But for the most important Ilictors after applying the economic liberalization policy (I 987 — 1998) were modificated farm price of broad beans relative profitability of wheat and broad beans , relative profitability of wheat and permanent clover .
The second subchapter deals with studying wheat consumption in ARE and EL-Gharbia Governorate before and after economic liberalization through studying development of population numbers, national consumption, quantity and value of wheat gap, self sufficiency rate, wheat and flour imports and the average of capita share from the imported flour (72%), where as population increasing by 2,6%, 2.2% of the average of population in the two periods. The national consumption is increasing through the two periods of the study by annual increase 3.9%, 3.1% from the average of the national consumption from wheat will reach to 14.8 million tonnes in 2010. But for wheat gap volume from wheat increased before liberalization by annual rate 5.7% from the average of the period, Meanwhile it decreased after this liberalization by annual decrease rate 0.22% from the average of the period. It is expected that in 201:0 the wheat gap volume in Egypt will amount 4685 thousand tonnes and the value of this gap increased in both periods by annual increase 12.5%,. 9.4% from the average
of the two periods.
For self sufficiency from wheat, it decreased before liberalization by animal decrease 3.9% from the average of that period, meanwhile it increased after liberalization by annual increase 4% from the average of this period. As for Egypt imports from wheat, increased before applying economic liberalization by annual rate 5.7% from the average of the poriod meanwhile these imports decreased after this policy by annual decrease 0.17%. from the average of the period. The same case for flour imports (extraction 72%) where increased during the first period (1976- 1986) by annual increase rate 9.4% from the average of the period, while these imports decreased during the
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second period (1987-1998) by annual decrease 13.2% from the
average of the period .
As for the average of capita share from the imported wheat flour (72%) was also increasing before liberalization by annual rate 7.1% from the average of the period, next it decreased in the second period by annual rate 15.5% from the
average of the period.
For individual consumption, it was in general increasing trend before and after economic.liberalization by increasing rate 0.42% 0.33% from consumption average for the two periods which estimated about 138 k.g and 162 k.g respectively .
In El-Gharbia Governorate, the consumed quantity from
wheat was in general increasing trend during the two periods of the study by annual increasing rate 2.7%, 2.5% from the two periods average. It is expected that consumption quantities from wheat in this governorate will reach 769 thousand tones in 2010 and from imported wheat flour (72%) was increasing before economic liberalization by rate 5% from the average of the period, but after that it decreased by annual rate 7.76% from the average of the period. for the volume of wheat gap , it increased by rate 4.1% in the first period and decreased by rate 0.31% in the second period in Garbia governorate the value of the gap it increased in the two periods by increase rate 11.4% before liberalization. and 9.6% form the average of the iieriod after liberalization: For self sufficiency rate, it decreased by 2.2% annually before liberalization, while it was in general increasing trend after liberalization by 3.1% annually from period average. for capita share from local flour 82% , it increased by annual rate
10.3% from period average (1989-1999). By studying functional
relation between population numbers and each of bakeries and
supply share. and the average of capita share from local flour
(82%) in the governorate , it appeared that there is forward
relation between population and these elements and the reasons
of consumption increase due to reduction of bread quality ,
decreasing loaves price , decreasing feeding ..awareness
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immigration of farmers to cities in large numbers converting village from producer to consumer using bread in other purposes and finally absence of quality coefficient and control .
The’ third subchapter deals with the affecting factors on wheat consumption in Egypt where they divided to social factors including population numbers age and specific structure geographical distribution impact of educational state , impact of family size and other economic factors including : income per capita , retail prices of wheat , maize rice , macaroni , food subsidy for wheat besides bakeries and allocated supply share .
The third chapter includes studying research sample and it contains three subchapters :
The first one deals with stages of sample selection , where as two centers have been selected in the governorate . They are Tanta and Zefta. Two villages from each centre have been selected and they are Mahalet Menouf and Melt El Sudan from Tanta Center. Damanhour EL-Wahsh and Sunhat from Zefta
Center. Also a simple random layer sample from the farms of the selected villages.
These farms have been divided to three tenancy categories (less than one feddan), (1- < 2 ’feddans), (2 feddans and more) .
The number of the selected sample farms was 217 and by using sample fraction number of these samples in each category was selected , and they amounted 127 , 65 , 25 farms from the
three categories respectively and suitable questionnaires design was made for the study crop. •
The second subchapter deals with wheat production and costs, besides analysis of the agricultural policy for this crop in the sample through studying economic and static analysis of production factors . The results showed that the first tenancy category was the most categories using the resources of seeds fertilizers,. human and animal work . The third tenancy category was the less categories using these resources. The results of the static analysis showed the apposite relation between quantum of
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production from wheat and seeds elements and human work and that indicate overusing these two. factors and the forward relation between the area, fertilizers .mechanical work and animal work The estimation of total flexibility for the function of the sample total indicate that there is increase in the income and the producers in this sample produce in the stage of the economic
production .
For production costs the, analysis results cleared that human work element was higher in the first tenancy category and less in the third tenancy category , on contrary of mechanical work element which estimated less in the first category and higher in the third one and this agrees with the economy theory .
lot the result of static analysis it was clear that there is forward relation between production and costs indicating that producers of this sample are working in the stage of economic production. in comparison 9f economic production with competitive crops in rotation , the questionnaires results showed decrease of clover production cost compared with each of wheat
and broad beans .
For feddan income wheat exceeds the competitors. the net income amounted the most from permanent clover and was less in wheat as result of increasing productivity costs . Measurement results of the agricultural policy analysis in the sample showed nonexistence of relative advantage in wheat production for this sample that due to decreasing wheat price in the world market than local prices in the Egyptian market .
The third subchapter deals with wheat consumption and manufacture in the sample where as consumption has been studied through the economic and static analysis of the field questionnaire data which resulted that the third tenancy. category is the least in the categories in wheat consumption—(the average of capita consumption 169 kg) and the first tenancy category is the highest ones in consumption ( the average of • capita. consumption 182 kg. ) and there is opposite relation between the consumed quantity from wheat and the individual income .
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For manufacturing wheal in EL-Gharbia Governorate the field questionnaire results showed the applied steps in this process and the technical qualifications for bread. The costs of manufacturing one wheat sac weighing 1001<g and converting to bread ( balady ) L.E. 46.65 to produce 1100 loaves and the net income from one sac about L.E. 8.35 , also the rblem
producing farmer bread in the counhyside representsp ino creasin of
g
costs and absence of trained employment if) his kind of bread.
For wheat subsidy in this governorate under economic reform policy it was clear that the governorate consumed 203 thousands tonnes from wheat flour converted to bread as supply
share through 1999 and subsidy for this quantity amounted L. E 55 .
9_ summary